Macfax Resume Metrics
What a team has earned, not just how good they are
Adjusted Ratings estimate how good a team is. Resume Metrics estimate what a team has actually earned. These are different questions — a team can build strong adjusted ratings through a weak schedule without validating that strength in competition. Resume Metrics capture the achievement profile: Wins Above Bubble, Strength of Record, Strength of Schedule, NET rank, and quadrant-by-quadrant records against the full game log.
What It Measures
Resume Metrics cover four primary indicators and a full game-log breakdown. WAB (Wins Above Bubble) measures how many more wins a team has than a typical bubble-quality team would be expected to produce against the same schedule. SOR (Strength of Record) measures how difficult it would be for a reference-level team to match the same record against the same opponents. SOS (Strength of Schedule) measures how hard the schedule is, expressed as the expected win percentage for an average Division I team playing that exact slate. NET Rank is the official NCAA Evaluation Tool ranking used by the selection committee. Quadrant records break the game log into four tiers based on opponent quality and game location, following the NCAA Committee's official framework.
Why It Matters
NCAA Tournament selection committees use achievement-based criteria alongside predictive ratings. A team that goes 28–3 against a weak schedule may rate well in adjusted efficiency but have a weak resume. Resume Metrics close that gap — they answer the question the committee is actually asking: given the games this team played, did they win the ones that matter? WAB and SOR are the most directly committee-relevant numbers on Macfax.
How to Interpret
WAB is the clearest single resume number. Positive means the team has won more games than a bubble-level team would be expected to win on the same schedule — strong positive WAB is direct evidence for an at-large bid. SOR rank is lower-is-better (1 = best) — a low rank means few reference-quality teams would have matched this team's record against the same opponents. SOS rank is also lower-is-better (1 = hardest schedule). Best Wins and Worst Losses show the five most significant wins and five most costly losses by opponent quality, with quadrant labels showing context. Quadrant records summarize the full season by tier: Q1 is the hardest category, Q4 the easiest.
Formula
WAB = Σ (Actual Game Result − Probability a Bubble-Quality Team Wins That Same Game) Summed across all completed games. Positive = more wins than expected. Negative = fewer.
Technical Notes
- WAB uses the Macfax matchup model to compute, for each game, the win probability a representative bubble-quality team would have against that opponent in that location. WAB is the sum of actual results minus those probabilities across all games. The bubble baseline is calibrated to represent a team on the fringe of at-large consideration.
- SOS is computed using a logistic win-probability model applied to an average Division I team baseline against the full schedule. The output — shown as an expected win percentage — represents how hard the schedule was: a lower expected win percentage means a harder schedule. The exact calibration values are internal to Macfax.
- SOR uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach: it estimates how often a reference-level team (drawn from the upper-middle of the national field) would achieve the same or better win-loss record against the same opponents. A lower SOR rank means the actual record is harder to replicate, which is better.
- NET Rank is the official NCAA Evaluation Tool ranking as published by the NCAA. Macfax displays it for reference alongside its own metrics; Macfax does not compute or control the NET.
- Quadrant definitions follow the NCAA Committee's official criteria, using opponent NET rank and game location. Home Q1 (1–30), Neutral Q1 (1–50), Away Q1 (1–75). Home Q2 (31–75), Neutral Q2 (51–100), Away Q2 (76–135). Home Q3 (76–160), Neutral Q3 (101–200), Away Q3 (136–240). Q4 covers all remaining games.
- Best Wins and Worst Losses are sorted by opponent quality, with game location and game value used as tiebreakers. Game value reflects the importance of each result relative to the bubble baseline.
- •Resume metrics are backward-looking and do not predict future performance.
- •WAB is sensitive to the bubble team calibration, which is recalibrated annually. Small changes to the baseline can shift WAB values slightly across all teams.
- •Early-season resume metrics are unstable before 15+ games are played. Early WAB and SOR should be treated as directional only.
- •Conference tournament performance affects resume metrics significantly in March — a conference tournament run can shift quadrant records, WAB, and SOR substantially in a short window.
- •NET rank is an external metric that Macfax does not compute. Discrepancies between NET and Macfax-computed metrics are expected — they use different methodologies.
- •Strength of Schedule reflects opponents faced, not opponents' actual quality at game time. A schedule that appeared hard at the time of scheduling can look weaker if opponents underperform.
Illustrative: a team with WAB +4.8, SOR rank #22, Q1 record 7–3, and two away wins over top-10 teams has built a genuinely strong tournament resume. They have won significantly more games than a bubble team would be expected to on that schedule, and their record would be difficult to replicate even for a reference-level team. The Q1 record alone — seven wins against the hardest game category — makes a compelling case. A team with WAB +1.2 and Q1 record 2–8 has played a hard schedule but has not validated it with results.