How Accurate Is Macfax?
Macfax is an independent college basketball model. This page tracks how the model performs against actual results, what it gets right, and where it is still improving.
Check back once the first predictions have been locked and evaluated.
How To Read These Numbers
Percentage of games where Macfax predicted the correct winner before tip-off. The higher-probability team is the predicted winner. A coin flip would give you ~50%. Good models land in the 68–74% range.
Mean Absolute Error of the projected point margin. A spread MAE of 9.0 means the model was off by 9 points on average. Vegas lines typically run 8.5–9.5 MAE on college basketball.
Average of the absolute errors for both teams' projected scores. Measures how well the model forecasts raw point totals, not just margins.
Measures probability calibration. Lower is better. A perfect model scores 0. A coin flip scores 0.25. Scores below 0.20 indicate well-calibrated win probabilities.
Prospective validation begins with games predicted after this system was deployed. Predictions are generated from Macfax's adjusted efficiency ratings before each game and saved as locked snapshots — they cannot be changed after the fact. Historical backtests may be added separately. Macfax does not claim superiority over any external ranking system.