Macfax Methodology

Macfax is independent, transparent, still improving, and built around basketball logic. These pages explain what each metric measures, how the numbers are calculated, and how to interpret them without overusing them.

Core Team Ratings

Macfax Adjusted Ratings

How Macfax estimates team strength using opponent-adjusted offensive, defensive, net, and tempo ratings.

Comparing overall team quality across unequal schedules

The Four Factors

The basketball foundation behind shooting efficiency, turnovers, rebounding, and free throw pressure.

Understanding how a team wins possessions, not just whether they do

Macfax Four Factor Index

How Macfax combines Four Factor performance into one standardized 0–100 team profile score.

Quick comparison of overall possession-efficiency profile across teams and seasons

Player Evaluation

Macfax Bayesian Performance Rating

How Macfax estimates offensive, defensive, and total player impact using box-score signals and lineup data.

Evaluating how much a player improves or hurts their team when on the court

Roster Projections

Macfax Roster Outlook

How Macfax projects next-season team performance using player talent, minutes, roster fit, continuity, and recruiting.

Understanding what a team's roster is likely to produce next season and where the roster has structural strengths or gaps

Prediction Tools

Macfax Matchup Model

How Macfax projects scores, spreads, totals, win probabilities, and Four Factor matchup edges.

Understanding what Macfax expects from a specific upcoming game

The Crystal Ball

How Macfax evaluates every team against 15 historical championship benchmarks to score championship readiness.

Identifying which teams have the profile of a legitimate national contender right now

Macfax Cinderella Index

How Macfax identifies teams more dangerous than their seed or reputation suggests across five structural dimensions.

Finding teams more dangerous than their seed or reputation suggests

Visual Frameworks

The Trapezoid of Excellence

How Macfax identifies the national efficiency-tempo region where championship-caliber teams historically appear.

Identifying whether a team's efficiency-tempo combination sits in the nationally elite zone

The Efficiency Landscape

How Macfax maps every Division I team by adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency to show both team strength and team style.

Seeing how teams are strong — offensively, defensively, or both — at a glance

Résumé and Data

Macfax Resume Metrics

How Macfax evaluates schedule strength, quality wins, WAB, SOR, SOS, NET rank, and full tournament resume.

Evaluating what a team has accomplished against their actual schedule

Data Sources and Update Timing

Where Macfax data comes from, how it is processed through the computation pipeline, and when ratings update.

Understanding data freshness, what is and is not tracked, and the reliability of current ratings