WORLD CUP · ELO RANKINGS
2026 World Cup
48 teams ranked by Elo rating — built from 150+ years of international match history
Updated July 22, 2026Efficiency Landscape
Elo rating vs. FIFA points — teams in the upper-left are rated higher by our model than FIFA
Team Rankings
Δ = FIFA rank minus Elo rank — positive means our model rates the team higher than FIFA does
48 teams
#▴ | Team | Grp | Elo | FIFA | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | H | 2279.7 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 🇦🇷Argentina | J | 2227.6 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 🏴England | L | 2160.4 | 4 | +1 |
| 4 | 🇫🇷France | I | 2112.9 | 3 | -1 |
| 5 | 🇲🇽MexicoHOST | A | 2081.8 | 10 | +5 |
| 6 | 🇧🇷Brazil | C | 2068.4 | 5 | -1 |
| 7 | 🇨🇴Colombia | K | 2062.8 | 11 | +4 |
| 8 | 🇵🇹Portugal | K | 2055.4 | 7 | -1 |
| 9 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | F | 2032.8 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 | 🇧🇪Belgium | G | 2024.1 | 8 | -2 |
| 11 | 🇲🇦Morocco | C | 2019.8 | 6 | -5 |
| 12 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | B | 1981.8 | 14 | +2 |
| 13 | 🇳🇴Norway | I | 1973.7 | 19 | +6 |
| 14 | 🇩🇪Germany | E | 1971.1 | 12 | -2 |
| 15 | 🇯🇵Japan | F | 1954.6 | 17 | +2 |
| 16 | 🇭🇷Croatia | L | 1950.2 | 13 | -3 |
| 17 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | E | 1929.6 | 25 | +8 |
| 18 | 🇨🇦CanadaHOST | B | 1928.6 | 30 | +12 |
| 19 | 🇺🇸United StatesHOST | D | 1924.1 | 16 | -3 |
| 20 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | H | 1919.0 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 | 🇮🇷Iran | G | 1885.6 | 22 | +1 |
| 22 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | D | 1875.7 | 34 | +12 |
| 23 | 🇹🇷Turkey | D | 1873.0 | 27 | +4 |
| 24 | 🇦🇺Australia | D | 1872.4 | 28 | +4 |
| 25 | 🇸🇳Senegal | I | 1867.8 | 18 | -7 |
| 26 | 🇦🇹Austria | J | 1867.4 | 23 | -3 |
| 27 | 🇪🇬Egypt | G | 1853.9 | 24 | -3 |
| 28 | 🇩🇿Algeria | J | 1853.9 | 29 | +1 |
| 29 | 🇰🇷South Korea | A | 1834.4 | 32 | +3 |
| 30 | 🇨🇮Ivory Coast | E | 1824.7 | 31 | +1 |
| 31 | 🇸🇪Sweden | F | 1795.9 | 37 | +6 |
| 32 | 🏴Scotland | C | 1793.4 | 42 | +10 |
| 33 | 🇨🇩DR Congo | K | 1772.7 | 41 | +8 |
| 34 | 🇨🇿Czechia | A | 1769.2 | 48 | +14 |
| 35 | 🇵🇦Panama | L | 1764.5 | 44 | +9 |
| 36 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | K | 1726.0 | 60 | +24 |
| 37 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | F | 1697.3 | 57 | +20 |
| 38 | 🇯🇴Jordan | J | 1696.9 | 73 | +35 |
| 39 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | H | 1693.9 | 58 | +19 |
| 40 | 🇿🇦South Africa | A | 1690.3 | 54 | +14 |
| 41 | 🇨🇻Cape Verde | H | 1687.6 | 64 | +23 |
| 42 | 🇬🇭Ghana | L | 1686.8 | 65 | +23 |
| 43 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | G | 1669.4 | 86 | +43 |
| 44 | 🇮🇶Iraq | I | 1669.1 | 63 | +19 |
| 45 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1668.6 | 61 | +16 |
| 46 | 🇭🇹Haiti | C | 1658.2 | 88 | +42 |
| 47 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | E | 1575.3 | 82 | +35 |
| 48 | 🇶🇦Qatar | B | 1565.6 | 59 | +11 |
How Elo Works
Elo RatingStarting at 1500, updated after every match. Wins gain points, losses lose them.
K-FactorWorld Cup matches: 60. Continental championships: 40. Qualifying: 25. Friendlies: 20.
MarginGoal difference multiplier rewards dominant wins but with diminishing returns.
Δ (Delta)FIFA rank minus Elo rank. Positive = model rates team higher than FIFA does.
Home AdvantageUSA, Canada, and Mexico get a +100 Elo point boost added to their base rating for hosting the 2026 World Cup on home soil.