WORLD CUP · ELO RANKINGS
2026 World Cup
48 teams ranked by Elo rating — built from 150+ years of international match history
Updated June 9, 2026Power vs. Perception
Elo rating vs. FIFA points — teams in the upper-left are rated higher by our model than FIFA
Team Rankings
Δ = FIFA rank minus Elo rank — positive means our model rates the team higher than FIFA does
48 teams
#▴ | Team | Grp | Elo | FIFA | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷Argentina | J | 2176.1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 🇪🇸Spain | H | 2140.9 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 🇫🇷France | I | 2114.4 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 🇧🇷Brazil | C | 2074.7 | 6 | +2 |
| 5 | 🇵🇹Portugal | K | 2051.0 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | 🇨🇴Colombia | K | 2043.2 | 13 | +7 |
| 7 | 🏴England | L | 2036.4 | 4 | -3 |
| 8 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | F | 1998.7 | 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 🇩🇪Germany | E | 1987.9 | 10 | +1 |
| 10 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | E | 1984.4 | 23 | +13 |
| 11 | 🇭🇷Croatia | L | 1980.9 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 | 🇧🇪Belgium | G | 1969.3 | 9 | -3 |
| 13 | 🇲🇦Morocco | C | 1967.8 | 7 | -6 |
| 14 | 🇯🇵Japan | F | 1966.3 | 18 | +4 |
| 15 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | H | 1964.3 | 16 | +1 |
| 16 | 🇲🇽MexicoHOST | A | 1951.0 | 14 | -2 |
| 17 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | B | 1910.3 | 19 | +2 |
| 18 | 🇸🇳Senegal | I | 1908.1 | 15 | -3 |
| 19 | 🇹🇷Turkey | D | 1906.6 | 22 | +3 |
| 20 | 🇳🇴Norway | I | 1904.9 | 31 | +11 |
| 21 | 🇮🇷Iran | G | 1896.6 | 20 | -1 |
| 22 | 🇩🇿Algeria | J | 1883.7 | 28 | +6 |
| 23 | 🇦🇹Austria | J | 1874.8 | 24 | +1 |
| 24 | 🇨🇦CanadaHOST | B | 1873.6 | 30 | +6 |
| 25 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | D | 1868.3 | 40 | +15 |
| 26 | 🇦🇺Australia | D | 1866.4 | 27 | +1 |
| 27 | 🇰🇷South Korea | A | 1864.7 | 25 | -2 |
| 28 | 🇵🇦Panama | L | 1828.7 | 34 | +6 |
| 29 | 🇺🇸United StatesHOST | D | 1825.7 | 17 | -12 |
| 30 | 🇨🇿Czechia | A | 1813.2 | 39 | +9 |
| 31 | 🇨🇮Ivory Coast | E | 1811.2 | 33 | +2 |
| 32 | 🏴Scotland | C | 1806.3 | 42 | +10 |
| 33 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | K | 1805.0 | 50 | +17 |
| 34 | 🇪🇬Egypt | G | 1801.3 | 29 | -5 |
| 35 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | F | 1773.1 | 46 | +11 |
| 36 | 🇸🇪Sweden | F | 1772.8 | 38 | +2 |
| 37 | 🇮🇶Iraq | I | 1740.0 | 56 | +19 |
| 38 | 🇨🇩DR Congo | K | 1739.7 | 45 | +7 |
| 39 | 🇯🇴Jordan | J | 1738.3 | 63 | +24 |
| 40 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | G | 1700.2 | 85 | +45 |
| 41 | 🇭🇹Haiti | C | 1693.8 | 83 | +42 |
| 42 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | H | 1679.5 | 61 | +19 |
| 43 | 🇿🇦South Africa | A | 1669.8 | 60 | +17 |
| 44 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1653.3 | 64 | +20 |
| 45 | 🇨🇻Cape Verde | H | 1651.1 | 67 | +22 |
| 46 | 🇬🇭Ghana | L | 1644.7 | 73 | +27 |
| 47 | 🇶🇦Qatar | B | 1591.9 | 57 | +10 |
| 48 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | E | 1579.5 | 82 | +34 |
How Elo Works
Elo RatingStarting at 1500, updated after every match. Wins gain points, losses lose them.
K-FactorWorld Cup matches: 60. Continental championships: 40. Qualifying: 25. Friendlies: 20.
MarginGoal difference multiplier rewards dominant wins but with diminishing returns.
Δ (Delta)FIFA rank minus Elo rank. Positive = model rates team higher than FIFA does.
Home AdvantageHosts receive a +100 Elo point boost when calculating win probability for their home matches. This is not reflected in the base rating shown here — it's applied per match.