No. 157· BSky

Idaho

Record 21-15Tempo 68.3Off 108.9Def 107.6

Adj. Efficiency Margin+1.23

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#157

1.23

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#180

108.9

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#139

107.6

Adjusted Tempo

#201

68.3

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#126

55.1

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#199

50.9%

TOV%

#107

15.7%

ORB%

#232

28.9%

FTR

#212

34.1%

🔮 Crystal Ball

3 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

20% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 108.9, D: 107.6

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:1.2

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:58.3%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #180, Def: #139

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:34.1%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.10

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:55.1

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:1.4%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.8%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:4.0%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

FAIL

Value:-5.95

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-9.5

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:72.6%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 1 spot better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)56

Defense (27%)56

Possession (21%)43

Variance (14%)71

Resume (10%)44

View full Cinderella Index →